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Study Suggests BMI Can't Predict Your Risk of Death—But This Other Metric Can

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Original Story by Health
July 15, 2025
Study Suggests BMI Can't Predict Your Risk of Death—But This Other Metric Can

Context:

Recent research indicates that Body Mass Index (BMI) is not a reliable predictor of mortality risk, suggesting instead that body fat percentage (BF%) is a more accurate metric. Unlike BMI, which fails to account for factors such as age, sex, and muscle distribution, BF% offers a clearer insight into health risks, including mortality. The study analyzed data from over 4,000 adults and found that individuals with high BF% were significantly more likely to die from any cause. While BMI remains a simple starting point for assessing health, experts advocate for incorporating multiple metrics, including BF%, during health assessments. Using modern bioelectrical impedance analysis, BF% can be quickly and inexpensively measured in a clinical setting, providing a better foundation for disease prevention strategies.

Dive Deeper:

  • BMI is traditionally used by physicians to assess body composition and associated health risks, but it has significant limitations because it does not consider factors such as age, sex, or muscle distribution, which can lead to misleading health assessments.

  • The study, published in the Annals of Family Medicine, found no significant link between an obese BMI classification and increased mortality risk, whereas a high body fat percentage was linked to a 78% higher risk of death from any cause.

  • Researchers used health data from 4,252 adults, collected between 1999 and 2004, to compare the predictive power of BMI and BF% on mortality, tracking outcomes through death certificates until 2019.

  • The findings suggest that BF%, which can be measured through bioelectrical impedance analysis, provides a more accurate assessment of health risks than BMI, and is an easy and cost-effective measure to implement in routine medical checkups.

  • Experts recommend that while BMI can serve as an initial step in health evaluations, a more comprehensive approach should include multiple metrics like BF%, waist circumference, blood pressure, and cholesterol levels for a complete health profile.

  • Elite athletes often have a high BMI due to increased muscle mass, which can incorrectly label them as obese, while individuals with a normal BMI but high BF% might have increased health risks, a condition referred to as 'normal weight obesity' or 'skinny fat'.

  • The study supports a shift towards using BF% in clinical practice to better predict health outcomes and emphasizes the need for physicians to adopt this metric for improved disease prevention and management strategies.

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