Context:

The ongoing crisis between India and Pakistan over the disputed region of Kashmir has not prompted a significant diplomatic intervention from the United States, a role it traditionally would have taken. President Trump's administration shows little interest in mediating the conflict, reflecting a shift in US foreign policy which now focuses on leveraging economic and military power rather than building international coalitions. Trump's lukewarm response suggests a reluctance to engage deeply, as past US administrations have in similar situations. Historically, the US has played a crucial role in de-escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, but current dynamics, including Trump's close ties with Indian Prime Minister Modi, have altered traditional roles. Without US leadership, other nations like Qatar might step in to mediate, but the situation remains volatile, especially with both nations having superpower allies in China and the US respectively.

Dive Deeper:

• The India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir, historically a trigger for US diplomatic intervention, is met with a passive response from President Trump, who expresses hope for a quick resolution but shows little enthusiasm for active involvement.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintains contact with Indian and Pakistani officials, but there is no sign of the US coordinating a broader international mediation effort, partly due to the expectation of further escalation between the two nations.

• Trump's administration has shifted US foreign policy away from traditional alliance-building and coalition efforts, focusing instead on economic and military leverage, which has left a void in global leadership, particularly in managing crises like the one in Kashmir.

• The US has historically played a significant role in calming tensions in the region, notably during the Kargil conflict in 1999, but the current administration's priorities and Trump's personal rapport with Modi have diminished its involvement.

• With the US's diminished role, countries like Qatar might attempt mediation, although their efforts could be complicated by regional politics and alliances, particularly given Qatar's expression of support for India's right to self-defense and its condemnation of the attacks in Kashmir.

• The US's ability to influence Pakistan has decreased since the end of the war on terror and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, as Pakistan has grown closer to China, complicating the geopolitical landscape further.

• The current crisis could escalate further, with both India and Pakistan having political and military motivations for retaliation, while international efforts to de-escalate are unlikely to be led by the US given the current administration's stance.