Context:

Investors increasingly bet against SpaceX, with short interest rising to roughly 32% of the tradable float as the company prepares its first earnings report and lock-up expirations. About 206 million shares are short, equating to $25 billion in bearish bets, after a rapid rise from 40 million a month earlier. Musk warned that stubborn short positions face slim survival chances, while bulls point to leadership in launches, Starlink growth, and AI ambitions. The upcoming earnings release on Aug. 4 could test investor sentiment and the evolving balance between growth prospects and valuation. Market activity showed a modest bounce as analysts reiterated favorable views amid the waning post-listing drop, though the stock remains below its IPO price.

Dive Deeper:

• Short interest has climbed to approximately 206 million SpaceX shares, representing about 32% of the publicly tradable float, with notional bearish bets around $25 billion.

• This level follows a rapid week-over-week increase from roughly 185 million shares (29% of float) and a much earlier rise from about 40 million shares (roughly 5–7% of float) a month prior.

• S3 Partners’ Matthew Unterman highlighted that investors are adding short exposure ahead of key catalysts, notably SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company and upcoming lock-up expirations.

• Elon Musk underscored the risk to short sellers via a post on X, arguing that firms maintaining large short positions face low survival probabilities, while touting SpaceX’s potential to exceed expectations if goals are met.

• SpaceX has scheduled its Aug. 4 earnings release after the market close, expected to deliver the first detailed financial view since going public and potentially recalibrating momentum for bulls and bears.

• Bulls cite leadership in launch services, Starlink expansion, and AI ambitions as support for long-term growth, while skeptics question whether the current valuation already reflects future gains.

• In trading, SpaceX rose about 4% amid renewed interest, with the stock hovering around $125 after a period of declines, still below its $135 IPO price.