Americans' optimism about the future just hit its lowest point in nearly two decades. And the data shows exactly when it started falling apart. Before you blame it all on Trump, keep reading.

A long-running Gallup poll found 59.2% of U.S. adults anticipate a high-quality life within the next five years. Lowest share since Gallup started asking this question almost 20 years ago.

The poll covered four quarterly measurements in 2025 among 22,125 U.S. adults. It revealed a 3.5 percentage point drop from 2024.

"If you look at the optimism metric for future life, that really came down a lot from 2021 to 2023, and that corresponds really closely with the worst of the inflation crisis," Dan Witters, research director of the Gallup national health and well-being index, told Fortune. "The economic pressures of being able to afford things like food and fuel and gas and health care—that really can have a deleterious effect."

So, the timeline is clear. Optimism tanked from 2021 to 2023. Right when inflation was crushing people.

The "Thriving" Number Dropped Hard

The study found the number of Americans who rate both their current and future lives high enough to be characterized as "thriving" dropped to 48%. Down more than 11 points from a high in June 2021. Sixth-lowest rating out of all 176 measurements taken since 2008.

The last time it dropped this low was April 2020. The month after COVID first hit.

Americans are now as pessimistic about the future as they were at the start of a global pandemic. Let that sink in.

What Changed

Over the last several years, inflation, domestic conflict, economic uncertainty, and political upheaval made Americans feel more pessimistic. Americans' confidence in finding a job hit rock-bottom. Homeownership grew increasingly unattainable for younger generations. The expanding K-shaped economy is leaving millions behind.

"Their optimism for the future is now eroding," Witters said. "[It's] eroding at a rate that's kind of significantly greater than what we find with how they evaluate their current lives."

People feel worse about where they're headed than about where they are right now. That's the opposite of how optimism usually works.

Even When Inflation Cooled, People Stayed Pessimistic

Inflation cooled in 2024. Dropped to 2.5% year over year by August. Americans remained pessimistic anyway. Witters attributed that to political partisanship.

President Trump won reelection in 2024 riding Americans' gloom about inflation and the economy. A year later, upstart Democrats including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani swept on concerns about "affordability."

So, both parties won by campaigning on economic anxiety. Because people are still anxious.

The Partisan Split

"In 2025, the steep drop among Democrats coupled with no change this time among Republicans don't cancel each other out. And so you have that real net negative in the overall U.S. total," Witters said.

Life ratings usually swing dramatically among political parties when control of the White House changes. But this time the numbers are worse.

Democrats' expectations for a high-quality life dropped 7.6 percentage points from 2024. For context, Republicans' sentiment dropped 5.9 points after Biden took office in 2021 while Democrats' optimism rose 4.4 points.

But even among Republicans, optimism only rose 0.9 points last year. Less than one percentage point. Trump won and Republicans barely got more optimistic.

Independents' optimism fell 1.5 points.

"I think that to the extent that that kind of partisanship can kind of influence the overall national numbers, clearly that's happening here," Witters said.

How the Poll Works

Gallup asked respondents to choose a step on a ladder numbered from zero to 10 representing their quality of life. Zero indicated the worst possible life. Ten indicated the best.

By race and ethnicity, Hispanic adults saw the steepest drop in optimism from the year prior, which fell six points. White adults also saw a notable decline of 4.6 points. Sentiment among Black Americans fell 2.2 points.

The Bottom Line

Americans' optimism about the future hit its lowest point since Gallup started tracking it nearly 20 years ago. The drop corresponds directly with the inflation crisis from 2021 to 2023.

The inflation wave of 2021–23 wasn't just a blip. It fundamentally changed how Americans feel about their futures. And even with inflation cooling and political changes, people haven't recovered that optimism.

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