Context:

Forecasters identified the first area of concern for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on June 10, with conditions not favorable for significant development. A weak feature could form in the Bay of Campeche later in the week, but it is not expected to threaten the U.S., and any impact would mainly involve heavy rainfall across eastern Mexico and parts of South Texas. The disturbance is linked to the remaining spin from Tropical Storm Cristina in the eastern Pacific as it moves inland toward Central America, crossing into the southern Gulf by Friday. Overall, widespread tropical development in the Atlantic is unlikely through the rest of June due to persistent wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust, while Pacific activity remains more likely later this month.

Dive Deeper:

• The National Hurricane Center flagged a disturbance on June 10 that could yield a weak low-pressure center from the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche around June 11–12, generating thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas from the west-central Gulf to June 14. It poses no direct threat to the U.S.

• The disturbance traces its origin to the residual spin of Tropical Storm Cristina in the eastern Pacific, which is drifting inland toward Central America and is expected to cross into the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche by June 12.

• Regardless of development, soupy tropical air is expected to spread over eastern Mexico and South Texas, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall primarily across northeastern Mexico late this weekend into early next week.

• Wind shear is forecast to remain a deterrent to significant tropical development in the Gulf and Caribbean through the week, with tropical waves from Africa suppressed well south of the Gulf and storm systems tracking north of the region.

• Periodic dry air and Saharan dust moving westward from Africa are likely to continue suppressing Atlantic development for the last two weeks of June, aligning with forecasts from AccuWeather and the Climate Prediction Center.

• The Climate Prediction Center concurs with the low-activity outlook for the Atlantic rest of June, while odds for a tropical system in the Pacific in the last week of June exceed 60%.