Context:

The Wisconsin governor’s race in November 2024 ended with Democrat Josh Stein defeating Republican Mark Robinson by about 14 points, a result shaped by significant split-ticket voting where voters supported different parties for different offices. Even as Vice President Harris lost Wisconsin to President-elect Trump, the state elected a Democratic Senate candidate, underscoring divergent voting patterns in battleground contexts. Pre-election polls repeatedly showed Stein leading Robinson, including AtlasIntel (54.0% to 37.5%) and Emerson College Polling (51.6% to 40.1%). The overall trajectory suggests a strong Democratic showing in the state despite mixed outcomes for Party nominees across offices, with the dynamic of split-ticket voting central to the results and its implications for future races.

Dive Deeper:

• The race concluded with Stein defeating Robinson by a 14-point margin, indicating a decisive statewide advantage for the Democratic candidate.

• Split-ticket voting played a notable role, evidenced by democratic success in the governor’s race alongside Republican or independent outcomes in other statewide offices, such as the Senate result.

• Polls in the lead-up to the election consistently showed Stein ahead, including AtlasIntel's November 4–5, 2024 survey (Stein 54.0% vs. Robinson 37.5%).

• Another pre-election poll from Emerson College Polling (October 31–November 3, 2024) showed Stein at 51.6% and Robinson at 40.1%, reinforcing the momentum ahead of election day.

• The timing and pattern of results highlight differing voter priorities by office, suggesting that local dynamics and candidate quality influenced outcomes beyond a single-party wave.