Context:

President Trump's military strike on Iran has led to increased speculation in China regarding his potential actions concerning Taiwan. Despite previously opposing foreign military intervention, Trump's decisive attack on Iran's nuclear sites suggests a willingness to use force, prompting Beijing to reconsider its strategies on Taiwan, which it views as a renegade province. China's leadership is concerned about Trump's unpredictable nature and the possibility that he might either support Taiwan militarily or be swayed to reduce U.S. backing. The U.S. has traditionally supported Taiwan with arms sales and a potential military presence, but Trump's volatile approach creates uncertainty. Analysts suggest that China's increased military activities around Taiwan are a test of both Taiwan's and the U.S.'s responses, with China's government preparing for any escalation under Trump's administration.

Dive Deeper:

• President Trump's unexpected military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, after initially opposing military interventions, has raised concerns in Beijing about his potential actions regarding Taiwan, an island China considers part of its territory.

• China is reevaluating its approach to Taiwan in light of Trump's unpredictable decision-making, as evidenced by his fluctuating stances in the trade war with China and the recent Iran strikes, which suggest a willingness to use military force.

• There is apprehension in China about whether Trump might dilute U.S. support for Taiwan, despite the long-standing U.S. policy of providing military aid and potentially intervening if Taiwan is attacked by China.

• Chinese military activities near Taiwan have increased, with frequent military aircraft sorties and naval deployments, as China seeks to test and potentially wear down Taiwan's defenses and gauge the U.S. response under Trump's administration.

• Taiwanese and U.S. experts are wary of China's efforts to influence Trump, who has been deliberately vague about U.S. military intervention in Taiwan, a stance intended to deter Beijing while maintaining strategic ambiguity.

• Despite Trump's criticism of China's economic policies, he has maintained a personal rapport with President Xi Jinping, raising concerns about potential concessions that might weaken Taiwan's security and reliance on U.S. assurances.

• China's military confidence is reinforced by its advanced missile capabilities and expanding navy, posing a significant challenge to any U.S. military intervention, unlike the relatively weaker Iranian forces faced by the U.S. and Israel.