Context:

Israel has been engaged in secret negotiations with Syria, aiming for a diplomatic resolution to long-standing territorial tensions, while simultaneously conducting military strikes on Syrian government forces in Damascus. These actions underscore a lack of strategic clarity and reflect Israel's post-2023 military doctrine that prioritizes preemptive force over diplomatic solutions. The recent Israeli strikes were prompted by Syrian military movements in southwest Syria, which posed a security threat and sparked unrest among Israel's Druse community. Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted on maintaining the demilitarized status of southern Syria, responding to both external threats and domestic pressures from the Druse protests. Despite these developments, it remains uncertain whether Israel intends to sustain a prolonged military campaign or if the recent actions were a temporary measure to address immediate concerns.

Dive Deeper:

• Israel and Syria have been involved in secret back-channel talks, seeking a diplomatic settlement over territories captured by Israel during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Despite optimistic media predictions of a peace deal, Israel's recent military actions highlight the premature nature of such expectations.

• The Israeli airstrikes on Syrian government targets, including in Damascus, reflect Israel's preference for forceful preemptive measures, a strategy shaped by its past traumas and recent successes against regional adversaries like Hezbollah and Iran.

• The immediate trigger for Israel's military action was the Syrian government's deployment of forces to southwest Syria to address internal conflicts, which Israel viewed as a potential security threat necessitating military intervention.

• Domestically, the Israeli Druse community, angered by reports of extrajudicial killings and the Syrian military's encroachment, held protests and applied pressure on the Israeli government to act, influencing Netanyahu's decision to enforce a demilitarized zone.

• The Druse community in Israel, numbering around 150,000, has historically supported the Israeli military, which complicates the Israeli government's position as it seeks to balance domestic and foreign policy considerations.

• The Druse protests, some involving border crossings into Syria, have demonstrated the community's influence and the political pressure they can exert on the Israeli government, even as it navigates complex geopolitical dynamics.

• Rafik Halabi, a Druse leader, expressed skepticism about Israel's intentions to engage deeply in Syrian affairs, indicating a tension between the desire to intervene and the reluctance to become entangled in Syria's internal conflicts.