Context:

The Supreme Court's landmark decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, marks its 10th anniversary amidst a backdrop of shifting political and social landscapes. Support for same-sex marriage has grown significantly, with nearly 70% of Americans expressing approval, though Republican support has declined, reflecting a more polarized public opinion. The decision has resulted in a notable increase in same-sex marriages and personal connections to such unions. Despite federal protections codified by the Respect for Marriage Act, conservative challenges threaten to revisit and potentially overturn these rights, reminiscent of the recent Roe v. Wade reversal. The Supreme Court's current conservative majority, alongside recent rulings, has intensified fears of a rollback of LGBTQ+ protections, suggesting potential future legal battles over marriage equality and related issues.

Dive Deeper:

• The Supreme Court's 2015 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges redefined marriage to include same-sex couples, ensuring they receive the same legal protections as heterosexual couples, and initiated profound cultural shifts across the United States.

• Public support for same-sex marriage has steadily increased over the past decade, with a Gallup poll indicating that 68% of Americans now support it, up from 60% in 2015. This growth is largely driven by Democrat and Independent voters, with bipartisan increases across various demographics.

• Despite broad public support, Republican backing for same-sex marriage has waned, dropping from 55% in 2021 to 41% in 2025. This decline coincides with a surge in anti-LGBTQ+ legislative proposals at the state level, signaling a growing conservative push against marriage equality.

• The Respect for Marriage Act, signed by President Biden in 2022, federally recognizes same-sex and interracial marriages performed in legal states, further solidifying the legal status of these unions at the federal level.

• Recent Supreme Court decisions, particularly the reversal of Roe v. Wade, have sparked concerns about the potential revisitation and possible overturning of same-sex marriage protections, with Justice Clarence Thomas suggesting a review of substantive due process precedents.

• Some Republican lawmakers and state legislatures have expressed interest in challenging the Obergefell decision, introducing numerous anti-LGBTQ+ bills, though most have not passed. These efforts suggest a possible legal trajectory back to the Supreme Court.

• Experts speculate about the future of marriage equality, with fears that conservative judicial leanings may lead to changes in existing LGBTQ+ protections, despite the difficulty in securing a majority to overturn established precedents like Obergefell.