Context:

In the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, Andrew M. Cuomo holds a diminishing lead over Zohran Mamdani, who is gaining ground by consolidating progressive support and appealing to Latino voters. The Marist poll indicates Cuomo is preferred by 38% of likely voters, while Mamdani stands at 27%, with the gap significantly narrowing from previous polls. The poll's results, however, do not account for recent campaign events, including a cross-endorsement between Mamdani and city comptroller Brad Lander, and an ad campaign targeting Mamdani. Cuomo's support is strongest among Black voters, women, and those over 45, while Mamdani is popular among very liberal voters under 45 and has doubled his support among Latino New Yorkers. With the primary nearing, Mamdani needs to further increase his support among nonwhite voters or drive high turnout from his base to win against Cuomo's entrenched backing.

Dive Deeper:

• The Democratic mayoral primary in New York City is now a close contest between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani, with Cuomo's lead over Mamdani narrowing from previous polls. As of the latest Marist poll, 38% of likely voters favor Cuomo, while 27% back Mamdani, reflecting Mamdani's growing momentum.

• Mamdani has successfully consolidated progressive support and increased his appeal among Latino voters, which has significantly reduced Cuomo's lead from a previous Marist poll conducted in May. Despite this progress, Mamdani faces challenges in broadening his appeal further among nonwhite voters.

• Recent campaign activities, such as a cross-endorsement with Brad Lander and a barrage of ads against Mamdani, were not captured in the poll, leaving potential shifts in voter sentiment unaccounted for. The poll was conducted before these significant developments, suggesting that the dynamics of the race could change further.

• Cuomo's support base is primarily composed of Black voters, women, and voters over the age of 45, groups that traditionally turn out reliably in Democratic primaries. His campaign's strength is bolstered by these demographics, which have remained consistent in their backing according to the latest poll.

• The ranked-choice voting system, employed for the second time in a New York City mayoral primary, adds complexity to predicting the election outcome. Cuomo's supporters are less likely to rank additional candidates, while Mamdani and Lander's backers show a greater propensity to use this voting method strategically.