Context:

Newly available voter turnout data reveals that even with full participation, Kamala Harris would have still lost the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump. Despite previous Democratic assumptions that high turnout would favor them, the data shows that young, nonwhite, and irregular voters shifted towards Trump in significant numbers. This defied traditional expectations, as these groups have historically leaned Democratic, leading to Harris losing both the Electoral College and the popular vote. The findings challenge longstanding Democratic strategies of mobilizing disengaged voters, revealing that these voters became swing voters who preferred Trump's conservative populism. Both the Democratic Party's progressive and moderate wings must reconsider their approaches, as the assumptions about mobilization and persuasion now appear outdated and ineffective.

Dive Deeper:

• The analysis of voter turnout data indicates that even full voter participation would not have secured a victory for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, as a significant portion of nonvoters preferred Donald Trump.

• Young, nonwhite, and irregular voters, typically seen as Democratic strongholds, defected to Trump, undermining the assumption that Democrats benefit from higher turnout.

• The data shows that the traditional Democratic advantage among disengaged voters was eroded, with many choosing to either stay home or vote for Trump, reflecting a shift in political allegiance.

• This shift challenges the Democratic Party's strategy of focusing on mobilizing disengaged voters, as these groups have now become swing voters attracted to Trump's populist message.

• The findings prompt a re-evaluation of Democratic tactics, as the distinction between mobilizing new voters and persuading swing voters blurs, requiring both party wings to rethink their electoral strategies.

• Democratic support among young and nonwhite voters is not guaranteed in future elections, as these groups have shown dissatisfaction with the status quo and openness to alternative political messages.

• The traditional mobilization strategy, which assumed disengaged voters would naturally support Democrats if motivated to vote, is now questioned, as these voter segments have demonstrated unexpected support for Trump.