Context:

Mary Peltola widened her lead over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska as ranked-choice voting tabulation continued, with roughly three-quarters of expected ballots counted and the margin growing to about 2,500 first-choice votes. The outcome hinges on whether Peltola can surpass 50% after transfers in the multi-round tally, as observers watch for late absentee ballots and the overall pace of Alaska’s counting. The race has been shaped by the so-called Decoy Dan controversy and ongoing investigations, while Alaska’s slow, post-Election Day process extends into mid-November. National implications loom, as Democrats could gain a larger Senate edge if Alaska and Mississippi clear for them. The next major milestone is the official RCV tabulation on November 18 after overseas deadlines.

Dive Deeper:

• Peltola led Sullivan by 2,517 first-choice votes in the latest batch, with Peltola at 48.6% and Sullivan at 47.5%, as 75–76% of the expected vote was in and tens of thousands of ballots remained to be counted.

• The Alaska system uses ranked-choice voting, where transfers from lower-ranked candidates could propel Peltola past the 50% threshold if no candidate wins a majority on the first count, potentially changing the outcome in rounds two or three.

• Governor Mike Dunleavy described the counting process as very confusing and slow, noting anticipated ballot dumps on November 13 and 18 and signaling ongoing investigations related to the 'Decoy Dan' candidacy and potential ballot misrepresentations.

• The 'Decoy Dan' scheme has become a focal point of Republican concerns, prompting a DOJ and Division of Elections review into possible improper actions surrounding candidate placement on the ballot.

• Other statewide races remained fluid on the same ballot, including governor and U.S. House contests, while Ballot Measure 2 on open primaries and ranked-choice voting kept a tight statewide balance.

• RCV tabulation is scheduled for November 18, following overseas absentee deadlines, which will finalize the ranking-based transfers and determine the eventual winner if no candidate crosses 50% on first preferences.