Context:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is intensifying his military efforts in Ukraine, undeterred by President Trump's expressed disappointment and potential U.S. pressures. Convinced of Russia’s growing battlefield superiority and the possibility of Ukraine's defenses collapsing, Putin is unwilling to halt the offensive without significant concessions. Initially, Trump's administration appeared to offer an opportunity for rapprochement, with promises of sanctions relief and geopolitical realignment. However, Putin's ambitions have grown, seeking not just territorial gains but also strategic changes in NATO's stance and Ukraine's military posture. Despite cordial interactions with Trump, Putin remains steadfast in his goals, prepared for potential sanctions, and focused on achieving Ukraine's capitulation to his demands.

Dive Deeper:

• Vladimir Putin is advancing Russia's military campaign in Ukraine, showing little regard for President Trump's dissatisfaction or the threat of increased U.S. pressure. He believes that Russia's military edge is growing and Ukraine's defenses may soon falter, making any cessation of hostilities contingent upon substantial Ukrainian concessions.

• When Donald Trump assumed office, he pursued a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, promising to end the Ukraine conflict swiftly. This led to Russian hopes for sanctions relief and favorable geopolitical changes. However, Putin's increased battlefield confidence has led him to demand more than just a cease-fire.

• Despite Trump's attempts to cultivate a friendly relationship with Putin, which included discussions of business deals and diplomatic overtures, Putin has not reciprocated with meaningful concessions regarding Ukraine. This has frustrated Trump, who acknowledged the complexity and challenges of ending the conflict.

• Putin's strategic objectives exceed merely retaining control of occupied Ukrainian territories. He demands NATO halt its eastward expansion and seeks to impose military limitations on Ukraine, aiming for a broader geopolitical reconfiguration in Russia's favor.

• The Russian leadership has anticipated potential sanctions and diplomatic setbacks, maintaining a pragmatic approach to its relations with the U.S. Putin values his rapport with Trump but remains realistic about the prospects of U.S. policy shifts, preparing for adverse scenarios.

• Despite Russia's escalating military actions, Trump has not significantly altered the U.S. policy response, neither imposing new sanctions nor increasing military support to Ukraine. This inaction has emboldened Putin, who believes a favorable deal with Trump is still possible in the future.

• Putin has been satisfied with his engagements with Trump this year, seeing them as a diplomatic breakthrough after years of isolation. Nonetheless, Trump's reluctance to separate U.S.-Russia relations from the Ukraine conflict has left Putin’s broader ambitions unfulfilled.