Context:

Russia is orchestrating a grand military parade in Moscow to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat, aiming to equate this historical victory with its current conflict in Ukraine. Despite the show of strength, Russia's military progress in Ukraine is sluggish, and its economy is under strain due to falling oil prices and Western sanctions. President Putin remains steadfast in his strategy, despite former President Trump’s increasing criticism and support for Ukraine, including military aid and economic partnerships. The economic challenges are exacerbated by high inflation and interest rates, with Russia’s fiscal deficit widening as oil revenues decline. Putin leverages Victory Day to project resilience and unity, equating the struggle against Nazi Germany with the ongoing conflict against NATO-backed Ukraine forces, while facing significant economic and diplomatic challenges.

Dive Deeper:

• Russia is holding its largest military parade since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, using it as a tool to draw parallels between past and present conflicts, and to bolster national pride and support for the ongoing war.

• The Russian military's progress in Ukraine has been minimal, with their forces advancing only 2.5 square miles per day on average, suggesting that their efforts to conquer the annexed regions could take years.

• Economic difficulties are mounting for Russia, with falling oil prices due to OPEC+ increasing output and Trump's tariffs significantly impacting Russia's budget, which heavily relies on oil revenues.

• Interest rates in Russia remain at a record high of 21% to combat inflation, leading to economic stagnation, while public discontent over rising food prices has not yet translated into political instability.

• Former President Trump, once supportive of Russia, has adopted a harsher stance, threatening sanctions on Russian oil buyers, increasing military aid to Ukraine, and securing mineral development deals with Kyiv.

• Despite the economic and diplomatic setbacks, Putin hopes to project unity and resilience during the Victory Day celebrations, drawing on historical analogies to World War II to strengthen domestic resolve against the West.

• China and Brazil's attendance at the Moscow parade suggests that Russia is not entirely isolated globally, despite Western efforts to impose sanctions and diplomatic pressure in response to the Ukraine invasion.