Context:

Israel has assessed that some of Iran's enriched uranium remained intact following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes, raising concerns about Iran's ability to access and use the material. Despite the destruction of critical nuclear facilities and the death of key scientists, questions remain regarding Iran's capacity to rebuild its nuclear capabilities. The U.S. has downplayed the immediate threat, arguing that Iran's nuclear ambitions have been severely hindered. However, differing assessments exist, particularly between Israeli and international officials, about the extent of the damage and remaining uranium stockpiles. The situation is further complicated as Iran has expelled international inspectors, reducing visibility into its nuclear activities, and may shift to smaller, dispersed operations to avoid detection and future strikes.

Dive Deeper:

• Israeli intelligence believes some of Iran's near-bomb-grade enriched uranium survived recent U.S. and Israeli attacks, potentially allowing Iran to continue its nuclear ambitions despite significant damage to its facilities.

• The joint strikes involved the use of advanced weaponry, including bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk missiles, targeting key sites like Natanz and Fordo, which were heavily damaged, with many centrifuges destroyed.

• There is a discrepancy between Israeli and international assessments regarding whether Iran moved part of its uranium stockpile before the attacks, with Israelis claiming none was moved, while international officials suggest otherwise.

• The expulsion of IAEA inspectors and the disabling of monitoring equipment by Iran has significantly reduced transparency and oversight, complicating efforts to assess Iran's current nuclear capabilities and intentions.

• Concerns have been raised that Iran may adapt its strategy by dispersing nuclear activities across small, hard-to-detect workshops, potentially marking a shift towards more covert operations to rebuild its nuclear program.

• President Trump and U.S. officials have maintained that the strikes severely set back Iran's nuclear program, claiming it has been 'obliterated,' though uncertainty remains about how quickly Iran could potentially rebuild its capabilities.

• Experts suggest that the future of Iran's nuclear efforts might involve avoiding traditional large facilities, opting instead for decentralized operations that are more challenging to target and destroy in future military actions.