Context:

Antony Blinken argues that the recent U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was a mistake, despite hoping for its success to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He highlights that the 2015 J.C.P.O.A. agreement effectively contained Iran's nuclear ambitions, but was dismantled by President Trump, leading to increased enrichment activities by Iran. Blinken questions the effectiveness of the military strike, citing doubts about the ability of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to incapacitate Iran's deeply buried sites fully. He warns that the strike could accelerate Iran's nuclear ambitions, similar to past events with Iraq, and advocates for diplomacy as a better long-term solution. Blinken also notes that the groundwork for the strike was laid by the Obama and Biden administrations through military planning and cooperation with Israel, but cautions against further escalation and potential Iranian retaliation.

Dive Deeper:

• Antony Blinken acknowledges the paradox of opposing the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities while hoping it succeeds in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. He emphasizes the threat posed by an Iran with nuclear weapons, which could act more aggressively in the Middle East.

• The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (J.C.P.O.A.) effectively contained Iran's nuclear program by extending the breakout time and implementing strict monitoring, but President Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 without a replacement, leading to increased uranium enrichment by Iran.

• There are doubts about the effectiveness of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs used in the strike, as initial reports suggest significant damage but not complete destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, raising concerns about Iran's ability to quickly rebuild and continue its program.

• Blinken warns that the military strike may provoke Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, potentially hiding enriched uranium and pursuing weaponization, drawing parallels to Israel's 1981 strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor, which led to an underground nuclear program.

• Despite the potential setback to Iran's nuclear ambitions, Blinken argues that the J.C.P.O.A. was a better long-term strategy, providing more time and reducing the risk of retaliation, and notes that the groundwork for the strike was laid by prior administrations through military planning and cooperation with Israel.