Context:

President Trump argues that gasoline prices are rising not because of the Strait of Hormuz but due to a shortage of refineries, highlighting Russia and California as key contributors and linking refinery outages to wartime disruptions. He publicly emphasized this mulitpart narrative via a Truth Social post and a White House remarks session before departing for Joint Base Andrews. The claim intersects with broader energy-market dynamics, noting ongoing oil flows through Hormuz yet attributing price pressure to refinery capacity and diesel-focused constraints. Market data cited suggests Gulf exporters briefly surpassed prewar levels in September, while national gas prices showed a modest weekly decline. The outlook centers on policy and supply-side constraints shaping near-term pump prices.

Dive Deeper:

• Trump stated that insufficient refining capacity, especially in Russia and California, is driving gasoline costs, rather than supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and tied these shortages to wartime disruptions and domestic refinery closures in blue states.

• He delivered the remark first in a Truth Social post and then reiterated it during remarks on the White House South Lawn before boarding Marine One, framing refineries as the pivotal bottleneck.

• The narrative connects refinery constraints to wider geopolitical events, including implied damage to Russian refineries and wartime effects on diesel and overall refinery output.

• NBC News cited shipping data indicating Gulf oil exporters exceeded prewar levels for roughly half of September, with a seven-day average of 18.3 million barrels per day around September 30, suggesting complex supply dynamics.

• AAA data noted that the average price for a gallon of regular gas was $4.37 on the referenced Monday, down about 11 cents from the previous week, illustrating mixed price movements despite the referenced refinery issues.