Context:

New Jersey's gubernatorial primaries spotlight the influence of former President Donald Trump, as both Republican and Democratic parties navigate their respective candidates' endorsements and strategies. Jack Ciattarelli leads the Republican primary with Trump's endorsement, despite their previously strained relationship, while the Democratic field is marked by a diverse array of candidates, including Mikie Sherrill, Ras Baraka, and Steve Fulop, each representing different ideological stances. The recent abolition of the 'county line' ballot structure has contributed to increased competitiveness among Democrats. A record-breaking $85 million in ad spending underscores the high stakes of the race, with significant contributions from outside groups. Historical voting patterns suggest a potential Democratic advantage, as the party typically rebounds in gubernatorial elections after losing the presidential race the previous year.

Dive Deeper:

• Jack Ciattarelli, previously critical of Trump, has secured his endorsement and leads the Republican primary, reflecting Trump's enduring influence in New Jersey's GOP despite his loss to Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

• The Democratic primary features a mix of moderates and progressives, with Mikie Sherrill emerging as a frontrunner due to her county party endorsements and her history of flipping a traditionally Republican district in 2018.

• Ras Baraka, a progressive candidate and Newark's mayor, has opposed Trump's immigration policies and positions himself as a non-conventional choice for unconventional times, while other candidates like Steve Fulop and Josh Gottheimer highlight anti-establishment platforms and economic issues respectively.

• The abolishment of the 'county line' ballot, a system that previously favored party-backed candidates, has led to a more competitive Democratic primary, as candidates like Sherrill leverage county endorsements in a landscape now free from structured ballot advantages.

• The gubernatorial race has seen unprecedented campaign spending, with Democrats leading in ad expenditures, driven by candidate campaigns and well-funded external groups like 'Affordable New Jersey' and 'Coalition for Progress'.

• Historical trends suggest Democrats could benefit from New Jersey's tendency to elect governors from the party that lost the previous presidential election, although the party has not won three consecutive gubernatorial terms in over 60 years.

• Virginia, like New Jersey, holds its gubernatorial election this year, yet the latter's primary remains uniquely competitive due to these evolving political dynamics and the abolition of previous electoral structures.