Context:

President Xi Jinping's ambition to prepare China's armed forces for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is hindered by internal military purges and leadership uncertainties. The removal of top military officials, including Gen. He Weidong, raises doubts about the competence and trustworthiness of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) commanders amid corruption concerns. Despite China's military advancements, the lack of battlefield experience of its commanders and the political control exerted by the Communist Party impede effective military operations. The tension between China, Taiwan, and the United States remains high, but Xi is likely cautious about engaging in conflict due to potential economic and political repercussions. Taiwan and the U.S. are encouraged to strengthen their defenses and develop strategies to counterbalance China's military capabilities and inexperience in warfare.

Dive Deeper:

• President Xi Jinping's goal to potentially invade Taiwan by 2027 is challenged by his ongoing purges within the military ranks, casting doubt on the PLA's readiness and leadership reliability. The dismissal of high-ranking officials, including Gen. He Weidong, reflects concerns over corruption and the competence of Xi's appointees.

• China's military has transformed from an outdated force to the world's largest, rivaling the United States in air, naval, and missile power. However, the PLA's effectiveness is hindered by a lack of battlefield experience and the internal turmoil of Xi's anti-corruption campaigns.

• The PLA's strong political ties to the Chinese Communist Party, rather than a national constitution, complicate its operations. Officers are required to follow party directives, which can slow decision-making and reduce flexibility in combat situations, contrasting with more apolitical military structures in democratic nations.

• Xi's anti-corruption efforts reveal the depth of graft within the military, affecting preparedness through the promotion of officers more adept at corruption than leadership and leading to procurement of inferior military equipment. Recent purges highlight Xi's struggle to maintain control over the military while needing its support to uphold his power.

• Political indoctrination within the PLA, including studying Xi's speeches, further complicates military efficiency, as it emphasizes loyalty over strategic initiative. This situation is common in autocratic regimes, where political interference often overrides military autonomy.

• Despite the military's current state, China would still likely engage in conflict if Taiwan moves towards outright independence. The disastrous example of Russia's invasion of Ukraine serves as a cautionary tale for Xi, demonstrating the risks of an aggressive military approach.

• To counter potential Chinese aggression, Taiwan should invest in defensive measures such as anti-ship missiles and drones, while the United States could bolster regional deterrence with long-range weaponry and strategic innovations that exploit the PLA's weaknesses.