Context:

Chinese President Xi Jinping's unexpected absence from the BRICS Summit in Brazil has sparked intense speculation about China's internal and external political dynamics. This marks the first time Xi has missed the gathering, leading to questions about his control over China's military and potential power shifts within the country. Analysts suggest that growing tensions within BRICS, particularly over China's trade policies and its strained relations with India, may have influenced Xi's decision to not attend. The group's cohesion is further challenged by its diverse and sometimes conflicting member interests, despite ambitions to challenge the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. While some view Xi's no-show as a sign of instability, others argue it reflects China's confidence and strategic delegation of power within BRICS, which continues to evolve amid these complexities.

Dive Deeper:

• Xi Jinping's absence from the BRICS Summit is unprecedented and has led to widespread speculation about China's domestic political situation and its diminishing influence within the group of emerging economies.

• China officially cited a scheduling conflict as the reason for Xi's absence, but experts like Gordon Chang believe it indicates possible instability in Beijing, including loss of control over the military and resurgent civilian rivals.

• The BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, faces internal tensions due to divergent interests and China's controversial trade practices that have strained relationships with countries like Brazil and Indonesia.

• Rising tensions between China and India, coupled with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's expected prominent role at the summit, are seen as potential deterrents to Xi's attendance, highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics within the group.

• Despite aspirations to establish a BRICS currency to rival the U.S. dollar, analysts remain skeptical of its feasibility due to the bloc's strategic fragmentation, although some note ongoing shifts in global currency flows as member countries explore alternatives to the dollar.

• BRICS poses a long-term challenge to U.S. influence, particularly in regions like Africa where China has filled a diplomatic void left by the U.S., controlling significant mineral resources and expanding its economic reach.

• Opinions are divided on whether Xi's absence is a strategic move demonstrating confidence in China's global agenda or a sign of retreat, as BRICS continues to grapple with its ambitions and internal contradictions.