Context:

The retirement of Derek Carr from the New Orleans Saints has a significant impact on the dynamics of the NFC South for the 2025 season. The Saints, already struggling with a poor record and one of the oldest rosters in the league, seem poised to tank the season to secure a high draft pick, potentially targeting Arch Manning. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers have made strategic moves that position them as strong contenders for the division title, provided they can win crucial games. The Atlanta Falcons, despite a promising draft, remain in a precarious position due to uncertainties around quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s performance and health. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, have retained key players and are prepared for injuries, making them capable of clinching the division if their new talent performs well this season.

Dive Deeper:

• Derek Carr's retirement leaves the New Orleans Saints in a compromised position, as they were already performing poorly with a 5-12 record last season, and now they face the challenge of rebuilding without their key quarterback while still owing him a significant salary.

• The Saints are likely to focus on securing a high draft pick for 2025, with Arch Manning at the top of their draft board, while managing one of the NFL's oldest rosters and substantial financial obligations to Carr.

• The Carolina Panthers have made considerable improvements, with promising performances from Bryce Young and financial savings from the release of Jadeveon Clowney. Their successful draft positions them as potential division leaders if they manage key victories.

• The Atlanta Falcons have shown improvement post-draft under Jeremy Greene's leadership but face challenges with Michael Penix Jr.'s adaptation to the NFL and injury risks, despite filling defensive gaps with new talent.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, bolstered by Baker Mayfield's impactful leadership, have strategically retained key players and prepared for injuries. Despite criticism of their draft choices, they are well-positioned to dominate the division if their roster performs as expected.

• It’s very hard, at least this early, to predict which teams will be good and which teams will be bad because anything is possible in the NFL.

• After the current events that have happened in recent days, things have gotten marginally clearer in the NFC South.

• Carr's retirement fundamentally changes things.

• New Orleans Saints

  The Saints, who were already a very bad team last year, going 5-12, will be even worse this year as they look to almost tank the 2025 season for a high draft pick.

• The good part is they don’t have to put Carr through the suffering of another terrible season while looking to replace him in the upcoming draft, with the hopes of the second coming of Archie Manning, Arch Manning, from Texas at the top of their early draft board.

• Rostering one of the oldest rosters in the league and still owing Carr almost $50 million over the next two years, and he's not even playing, the Saints are a long way away from contending for the NFC South crown.

• Carolina Panthers

  The Panthers have made moves in the right direction to become a good NFL team. Bryce Young looked better this year with Dave Canales. They saved themselves almost $8 million in cap space by releasing Jadeveon Clowney.

• Their entire draft was good, from Tetairoa McMillan to Nic Scourton, all the way down to Jimmy Horn Jr.

• It’s hard not to like what the Panthers have done. They’re truly one year away.

• If they can go out this year and win the close games and split with the Buccaneers and the Falcons, they can go immediately from here to number one next year to win the division.

• Atlanta Falcons

  While being one of Jeremy Greene’s most improved teams after the draft, this has just been an organization that has never been able to get out of its own way.

• Michael Penix Jr. may not be the answer like he was at Washington.  They hit harder than in college, and as soon as Penix Jr gets hurt again, it’s going to send that entire team into disarray.

• Thank goodness Raheem Morris attacked the draft well because their free agency haul was underwhelming at best. Drafting Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr, and Xavier Watts fixes some huge holes defensively.

• If Penix Jr stays healthy and the game slows down for him like it did at Washington, that and if Morris utilizes the talent he has acquired, they can win this division. 

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  The Buccaneers can win the NFC South solely at the hands of Baker Mayfield. Good thing he has been winning since he came to Tampa, which is much better than what the Cleveland Browns are doing right now.

• A lot of analysts are not happy with the Bucs' draft choices this year, but what they did do well was retain their key pieces.

• The way Tampa attacked this year's NFL draft was by preparing for injuries.

• Losing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last year completely dismantled this team, which people forget was one of the Philadelphia Eagles' regular season losses during their amazing Super Bowl run.

• If the players like Brandon Morrison, Emeka Egbuka, and Tez Johnson perform well, this team is easily a 12-5, and that’s splitting games with both Carolina and Atlanta.