Context:

Manchester United aims to confirm their place in the UEFA Europa League final against Athletic Club at the San Mames Stadium after a significant 3-0 victory in the first leg, facilitated by an early red card to Athletic's Dani Vivian. Athletic Club faces a daunting task, compounded by injuries to key players Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams, and Nico Williams, as well as Vivian's suspension. Despite Manchester United's occasional mental lapses, the absence of Athletic's key players significantly diminishes their threat. Athletic Club is expected to adopt a high-volume shooting strategy, given their average of 15 shots per match in the Europa League, though their efforts may result in low-value opportunities. Amad Diallo's potential return to United's lineup provides a crucial boost, complementing Bruno Fernandes in attacking roles, especially in a counter-attacking setup to protect their lead.

Dive Deeper:

• Manchester United holds a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg, largely due to an early red card for Athletic Club's Dani Vivian, and now seeks to secure their spot in the Europa League final at the San Mames Stadium.

• Athletic Club's hopes are severely hampered by the absence of key players Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams, and Nico Williams due to injuries, alongside Vivian's suspension, making their task to overturn the deficit even more challenging.

• Manchester United, known for their occasional mental frailty, are still expected to manage their lead effectively against a weakened Athletic Club, who lack the necessary firepower to threaten the aggregate scoreline.

• Athletic Club, aware of the urgency to overcome the deficit, is predicted to employ a high-volume shooting tactic, taking numerous low-value shots due to the absence of their key attackers and the time constraints against them.

• Amad Diallo's involvement is crucial for Manchester United, as his pace and attacking contributions, alongside Bruno Fernandes, could prove decisive in counter-attacking scenarios, helping United maintain their advantage.

• With one foot in the UEFA Europa League final, Manchester United seek confirmation of their place at the familiar San Mames Stadium later this month as they contest the second leg of their semifinal against Athletic Club on Thursday.

• Athletic had harbored hopes of a defacto home match in a European final, with the event later this month slated for their ground in Bilbao, but they face a dire situation after a terrible first leg last week.

• An early red card to Dani Vivian paved the way to a comprehensive 3-0 defeat, setting up an extremely daunting scoreline to turn around in just 90 minutes on the road. To make matters worse, they are without injured trio Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams, and Nico Williams for the return leg, plus the suspension of Vivian to boot.

• United have been anything but mentally tough this season, but this feels too difficult to bottle with a European final within reach... right?

• MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

• Man United vs. Athletic Club prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+275 on DraftKings)
  • Score prediction: Man United 1-1 Athletic Club
  While a fully fit Athletic Club squad could be a threat to this aggregate scoreline against a fragile side such as Manchester United, it's hard to imagine the team as currently constructed presenting the Red Devils enough of a threat in England to reverse the big lead.

• With the Williams brothers out plus the absence of Sancet, the task is simply too tall for them, especially considering Amad Diallo is possibly fit enough for a starting role, with the youngster proving one of the biggest bright spots amidst a topsy turvy United season.

• Even so, we know how United are in 2024/25 when there's no imminent threat of danger. The Red Devils are, as Ruben Amorim even admitted, prone to moments of madness, and a lacklustre performance in a game with defensive priorities is easy to envision.

• 	DraftKings (USA)
  Man United win	+100
  Draw	+250
  Athletic Club win	+275
  Both teams to score	Y: -130 N: +105
  Over / Under 2.5 goals	O: -110 U: -125
  Man United to advance	-8000
  Athletic Club to advance	+1400

  Man United vs. Athletic Club match facts

  • Date: Thursday, May 8, 2025
  • Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Old Trafford (Manchester, England)
  • Referee: Daniel Siebert (GER)
  • Last meeting: Athletic Club 0-3 Man United (May 1, 2025 | Europa League)
  MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Man United vs. Athletic Club

• Man United vs. Athletic Club best bet

  • Pick: Athletic Club 13+ total shots
  • Odds: +115 on FanDuel
  Athletic Club know they have a big deficit to turn around, and they should waste no time looking to test Andre Onana's goal. The Spanish side average over 15 shots per match in Europa League action and just under 13 in league play, and they even managed nine in the first leg while playing nearly an hour down a man.

• Unfortunately for the visitors, time is not on their side, so they know they have to take risks early and often. What that means, most likely, is a lot of low-value shots. The clock will be Athletic's worst enemy, and they will have to start taking shots from all areas instead of wasting valuable time looking to create more high-value opportunities.

• In the absence of Sancet plus the Williams brothers, it will be hard work building into the final third in their traditional pacey manner, so a more high-volume approach could be likely, especially with United sitting back in a defensive structure inviting Athletic to take those low-value efforts.

• Stay away from shots on target, but play the total shots.

• Man United vs. Athletic Club prop bet

  • Pick: Amad Diallo to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +125 on FanDuel
  Likely to start in this match, Amad Diallo has been a brilliant addition to this United squad when healthy this season. Through over 1,600 minutes of Premier League action this season, he's averaging over 0.4 xG+xA per 90 minutes.

• Tack on Europa League play, where he's averaging nearly three shot contributions per match across 500 minutes, and the 22-year-old is a major contributor to this side.

• With Bruno Fernandes on an island creatively in Amad's absence, the return of the youngster should help this side immensely. While Fernandes is still the main attacking threat regardless of who's on the field, United's likelihood to play on the counter in this match protecting their big lead means Amad's pacey influence will be even more important than usual.