It's early to begin mock drafts for the 2026 NFL prospects, but it's becoming more and more clear that evaluators don't see Texas Longhorns star Arch Manning as being part of the player pool.

Last week, ESPN duo Matt Miller and Jordan Reid released their top five quarterbacks for the 2026 NFL Draft and didn't include Manning.

Similarly, Pro Football Network recently released its three-round mock draft and asked the question that seems to be common among draft experts: What if Manning stays in school? 

"As the highest-paid collegiate athlete in NIL valuations, Manning makes a lot of money at Texas. His projected NIL deal isn’t as substantial as the one a No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft would receive, but with 2025 being his first year as a starter, teams may be deterred by Manning’s inexperience to select him at No. 1." 

That thinking flies in the face of Las Vegas oddsmakers, who have made Manning the favorite to be the No. 1 pick next year (+225 on DraftKings). 

But the reasoning makes sense.

Coming out of Newman (Louisiana) in the class of 2023, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound signal-caller was regarded as the top prospect in the country.

But in two seasons in Austin, Manning has sat behind Quinn Ewers and thrown a total of 95 passes (969 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions).

Given the growing trend of quarterbacks remaining in college to gain seasoning, coupled with NIL deals that keep them from missing out on big money earnings, it seems reasonable that Manning will be a 2027 NFL Draft prospect - even if he has a breakout performance this fall. 

NFL insider Adam Schefter has provided similar analysis.

“First of all, there’s no guarantees that Arch Manning’s coming out after next year,” Schefter said. “It sounds like he certainly could be staying beyond next year. I’m not a college football insider, but none of the Mannings ever went out early, and I don’t know with NIL money being what it is why Arch would do that. So, all of this conversation about ‘tanking for Arch next year,’ he could be in the draft in 2027, not even next year.”

It's certainly something to monitor, as evaluators continue to hint that "Manning in 2027" is a more likely timeline for his NFL debut.