Every offseason, we talk about who’s poised to take the leap, who loaded up in free agency, and who might finally break through. But let’s flip the conversation for a second. Because for every team making noise about a playoff push, there’s another quietly staring down the possibility of a total collapse.

Whether it’s a bad quarterback situation, a rookie head coach, or just a roster full of holes, there are always a few teams that feel one or two injuries away from hitting rock bottom. And in today’s NFL, rock bottom comes with a silver lining: the No. 1 overall pick.

1. New Orleans Saints — The Uncontested Frontrunner

The Saints were already teetering on shaky ground, and then Derek Carr decided to retire out of nowhere this spring. Luckily for New Orleans, they'd already taken a swing on Tyler Shough in the second round. It wasn’t a move that sparked much excitement — it felt more like a panic hedge than a confident investment in a long-term solution. Shough’s 26 years old, has one real year of college starting experience, and is now being tossed into the fire with very little around him. The quarterback room also includes Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, which tells you just how murky this situation is. None of these guys have proven they can consistently move the ball at an NFL level, let alone carry a struggling team.

And let’s not pretend the rest of the roster is built to carry them, either. This is one of the oldest lineups in the league, and there just aren’t enough prime-aged stars left. Chris Olave is a legitimate weapon, but even he has a troubling concussion history and hasn’t played a full season yet. The rest of the offense feels patched together — aging linemen, inconsistent backs, and not enough playmakers to bail out a young quarterback. Kellen Moore steps in as head coach, but he’s walking into a brutal first-year scenario with zero proven answers under center and a roster that feels like it’s been slowly decaying for years.

Making matters worse? Their cap situation is a disaster. They’re already projected to be in awful shape heading into 2026, which means this isn’t a team that can easily go out and fix things through free agency next offseason. Any hope of turning things around will have to come through the draft and player development — and right now, there aren’t many signs pointing up.

Path to the Bottom: The defense still has some familiar faces — Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu — but they’re all firmly in the twilight of their careers. This isn’t the nasty Saints defense we used to know. They’ve gone from battle-tested to brittle. There’s not much speed left on the back end, and the pass rush is spotty at best. If the defense can’t keep games manageable, it’s going to put Shough and the offense in constant catch-up mode — and that’s a nightmare waiting to happen.

Silver Lining: The one glimmer of hope? If things go as badly as expected, New Orleans could be picking first in what’s shaping up to be a fantastic quarterback class. So if this season turns into a full-blown collapse, at least there’s a real shot to hit the reset button with a true franchise guy.

2. Cleveland Browns — Quarterback Purgatory

Once Deshaun Watson went down with a torn Achilles, it was clear the Browns were going to have to improvise at quarterback—and boy did they. Instead of settling on one direction, they threw every possible dart at the wall: 40-year-old Joe Flacco (who had a fun run a couple of years ago but is clearly on borrowed time), Kenny Pickett (fresh off a Super Bowl run as a backup), and rookies Dillon Gabriel (a solid but undersized third-rounder) and Shedeur Sanders (an ultra-talented prospect with plenty of raw edges and a fifth-round tag). Every name brings a different skill set, but none scream long-term answer.

Myles Garrett is still wrecking gameplans on the edge, and first-round rookie Mason Graham is already turning heads in camp. But elsewhere? It’s messy. The offensive line has been banged up and reshuffled so many times that even their backups have backups. The receiver group lacks a true WR1, and Amari Cooper can’t carry the whole thing on his own. Add in a tough schedule — AFC North twice, plus dates with the NFC West — and this could go sideways quickly. Kevin Stefanski got an extension, but he’s not immune to pressure. A three-win campaign could have ownership rethinking everything.

Silver Lining: The Browns might be in quarterback chaos now, but they’re also holding two first-round picks in the 2026 draft thanks to that Jacksonville trade last April. If they do end up with the league’s worst record, Cleveland could be sitting on the kind of draft capital that changes a franchise’s direction overnight.

3. Tennessee Titans — Riding the Cam Ward Roller Coaster

The Titans finally hit the reset button and went all in on a new franchise quarterback, taking Cam Ward first overall. It’s a bold move — and it needed to happen — but it doesn’t change the fact that this roster is still a work in progress. Ward has the arm talent and athleticism to make magic, but he’s raw and stepping into a situation that’s anything but stable. He’s going to take his lumps early, and there’s no way around that.

Brian Callahan’s first year as head coach ended with a 3-14 record and really showed just how far behind the Titans were in the trenches. New GM Mike Borgonzi made the offensive line a priority, drafting JC Latham in the first round and moving him to right tackle while bringing in veteran Kevin Zeitler to steady the interior. But even with those additions, this group needs time to gel.

The Titans don’t exactly get a soft landing, either. They face the league’s eighth-toughest schedule, including early games against Kansas City and Baltimore. That’s a brutal welcome for a rookie QB still trying to learn the speed of the game. An 0-4 or 0-5 start wouldn’t be surprising — and it would only increase the pressure on Ward and the coaching staff to show some signs of life.

4. New York Jets — Flying Blind After the Rodgers Era

The Jets tried the all-in, star-quarterback route with Aaron Rodgers, and it fizzled before it really started. Now that the Rodgers era is over, New York is turning the page — again — this time putting their hope in Justin Fields. There’s still some upside there, especially with his legs, but it’s fair to wonder how many more chances he’ll get to prove he can be consistent as a passer.

New GM Darren Mougey made a couple of strong moves to support him, grabbing Missouri mauler Armand Membou at No. 7 overall to shore up the right side of the offensive line and LSU tight end Mason Taylor in the second round. But beyond Garrett Wilson, the rest of the receiving corps still feels underwhelming. There’s speed and youth, but not much in terms of proven production. It’s going to take more than one draft to fix that.

New head coach Aaron Glenn is trying to set a new tone and deserves credit for moving past the Rodgers mess quickly. But let’s not act like this is a chill environment — this is still the Jets. Woody Johnson is impatient, the New York media is relentless, and if Fields struggles out of the gate, things could get ugly fast.

Silver Lining: The good news is, the offensive and defensive lines look better than they have in years. Quinnen Williams anchors a front that can cause real problems, and the offensive line should be improved if everyone stays healthy. There’s just enough talent here to avoid total collapse, but this still feels like a team hovering in that 5-7 win range unless Fields takes a big leap.

5. New York Giants — Big Apple Blues

When your quarterback room looks more like a time capsule than a plan for the future, it’s usually a sign things are about to get rough. That’s where the Giants find themselves, rolling with a trio of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and rookie Jaxson Dart.

According to reports, the Steelers didn't want Wilson back after a so-so year in Pittsburgh last year. Winston is still one of the league’s most entertaining roller coasters — capable of a 70-yard bomb or a baffling pick-six on any given snap. Dart might be the future, but he’s raw and unproven, and there’s no telling how quickly he’ll develop. Meanwhile, Brian Daboll, once seen as a savior in New York, is now firmly on the hot seat after two seasons that never lived up to the hype.

Even if the quarterback situation were stable, the schedule wouldn’t be doing them any favors. The Giants drew the league’s toughest slate, facing Philly and Dallas twice, plus a suddenly stacked NFC North and an AFC West featuring Patrick Mahomes. There’s not a soft landing in sight.

With that being said, defensive front is still nasty. Dexter Lawrence is one of the most disruptive interior linemen in the league and Kayvon Thibodeaux keeps improving. If that group can take over games and force a few turnovers, they’ll have a chance to stay competitive, even when the offense sputters.

6. Carolina Panthers — Banking on Bryce (Again)

The Panthers were an outright mess for most of last season, especially on defense, where they gave up a league-worst 30.4 points per game. New head coach Dave Canales brought some much-needed energy and offensive creativity, but the defense routinely got shredded. To fix it, GM Dan Morgan got to work. They signed defensive tackle Bobby Brown III and safety Tre’von Moehrig, hoping to bring some stability to the middle of the field. They also spent draft capital on Arizona wideout Tetairoa McMillan and edge rusher Nic Scourton, but even with those additions, this still feels like a defense under construction.

Offensively, there’s more reason for cautious optimism. Bryce Young had a rough start to the year — he was benched for a few weeks — but showed real flashes down the stretch. He played with more confidence, took fewer sacks, and looked far more comfortable in Canales’ system. That said, he’s still the smallest quarterback in the league, and his margin for error behind an inconsistent offensive line is razor-thin. The Panthers re-signed a few key linemen and brought in more help through the draft, but until that unit proves it can keep him upright, every snap is going to feel like a risk.

7. Indianapolis Colts — Richardson Roulette

The Colts are in a weird spot. They finished just outside the playoffs last year, but the way it ended left a sour taste. Anthony Richardson had some bright moments in Year 2, but the accuracy issues were real, and his shoulder still isn’t quite 100%. That’s why the front office brought in Daniel Jones — part insurance policy, part pressure play. Jones isn’t exactly a franchise fixer, but he’s a veteran who can run the offense if Richardson isn’t ready, and it might be enough to keep the season afloat.

The defense needed help, too. That’s where new coordinator Lou Anarumo comes in. He’s got a track record of turning scrappy units into something dangerous, and the Colts gave him some tools to work with — signing Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum, and drafting J.T. Tuimoloau and Hunter Wohler. The pieces are there, but it’s going to take time to gel.

Anything less than a wild card spot could put head coach Shane Steichen in a tough spot. The Colts still have a solid O-line, Jonathan Taylor is back healthy (for now), and Michael Pittman Jr. wants to be seen as a WR1. If things go sideways early, there’s a version of this where the Colts consider hitting reset — again.

8. Las Vegas Raiders — Sin City Reset

After a rough 4–13 campaign, Mark Davis (with some guidance from Tom Brady) made a splash by bringing in Pete Carroll as the Raiders’ next head coach. Is it a culture fix? A short-term bridge? A brand move for Vegas? Maybe all three. The Raiders also traded a Day 2 pick to reunite Carroll with Geno Smith, who’s familiar with Carroll’s system — but he’ll be 35 by midseason, and his contract is easy to move off of after this year. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb might already have eyes on finding “his guy” long-term.

The roster’s gotten better on paper, but it’s still thin in key areas. Maxx Crosby is the heartbeat of the defense and just inked a major extension. He’s elite — but he can’t do it alone. The front office added some athletic pieces around him like rookie linebacker Prince Kollie, corner Cam Hart, and safety Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, but none are surefire game-changers yet. If Crosby goes down or has a down year, this pass rush could fall apart in a hurry, and the secondary just doesn’t have the depth to hold up on its own.

The good news? Vegas hit big with Brock Bowers. They also added one of the most dynamic backs in the draft in Ashton Jeanty, a do-it-all weapon who can catch, run between the tackles, and take pressure off Geno. With Bowers and Jeanty leading the way — and veterans like Jakobi Meyers still producing — the Raiders might not win many games, but they’re going to be fun to watch on Sundays.

The Fine Line Between Tanking and Turning the Corner

Every team on this list will tell you they’re not tanking. Players don’t tank, coaches don’t tank, and GMs rarely survive a deliberate nosedive. But all signs point to at least one of these franchises punching the first ticket to Detroit for the 2026 draft.

Will the Saints’ veteran core finally crumble? Can Cleveland’s quarterback carousel spin out of control? Does Cam Ward keep Jayden Daniels and CJ Stroud's trend going?

Just remember: today’s punchline can become tomorrow’s powerhouse. Ask the 2021 Bengals, the 2022 Texans, or the 2023 Commanders. Misery is temporary, but landing the right quarterback? That’ll keep the bandwagon full for years.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.